Hagerty Market Rating indicates a cooling trend

Hagerty Market Rating indicates a cooling trend

The Hagerty Market Rating for the classic car marketplace continued to grow in the past month, but only by one one-hundredth of a point in the last reporting period.

March Hagerty Market Rating Gauge

The Hagerty Market Rating for the classic car marketplace continued to grow in the past month, but only by one one-hundredth of a point in the last reporting period, which includes the run-up to the Amelia Island auctions.

While Hagerty, the classic car insurance company and price-guide publisher, didn’t introduce its new rating gauge until earlier this year, it started beta-testing its system last May and reports the latest 0.01 monthly increase as the smallest to date.

“The rating reflects modest increases in private sales and auctions compared to the same period last year, while expert sentiment is down slightly,” the Hagerty news release reported.

The rating is based on a weighted algorithm that considers 15 proprietary data points in eight categories, including public auction and private sales, values of insured cars, price-guide values, Hagerty’s own index system and input from industry experts.

The rating, reported at the middle of each month, is based on a 100-point scale and is presented in the form of a tachometer-style gauge, complete with a “superheated” red zone, a sort of warning that we’re approaching a possible burst of the bubble. Ideally, the market cruises along comfortably in the 60- to 80-point “expanding” zone.

The 70.98 rating for mid-March indicates an expanding market, which means strong values and increasing prices, though those figures are building at a slower pace.

Previous ratings were 70.22 in mid-January (adjusted to 70.28 by the end of the month), and 70.61 for February (adjusted to 70.97 at the end of the month). The reason for the month-end adjustments, Hagerty said, is the release of the national Consumer Price Index, one of the factors used in adjusting the classic car market index to include the national rate of inflation.

Hagerty notes that, as expected, the market is cooling and adds that, “market insured value increases are essentially flat for the first time in 11 months.”

Hagerty reports that year-to-year growth in the classic car market was 14 percent in 2013 and 11 percent in 2014. However, Hagerty expects the rate of growth to be around 8 percent for 2015.

Hagerty also said that its mid-March rating does not include the results of auctions held last week at Amelia Island. Those prices will be factored into the mid-April rating.

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